PGA DFS Prop Picks for the John Deere Classic (Round 2) by PrizePicks
PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for John Deere Classic Round 2: Adam Hadwin to shoot less than 68 strokes, Keith Mitchell to improve off the tee and with putting, J.T. Poston to have more birdies or better than Satoshi Kodaira.
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This week, we're at TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic! TPC Deere Run played slightly harder than expected in round one, with only 22 players shooting better than -3. That may have had something to do with the grown out rough for this year's event. It is still by no means a difficult course and I expect birdies to be there all week. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round two on Friday, July 7th.
PrizePicks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Adam Hadwin LESS than 68.0 Strokes
Adam Hadwin shot a (-1) 70 in round one. I'm less interested in his overall score than how he got there. Hadwin was T24 in the field off the tee in round one and 31st on approach. While neither of these are earth shattering, he gained just under a stroke on the field in each category. Hadwin's miscues came on the putting green, where he lost over a stroke and a half to the field. I'll take my chances that the 27th ranked putter on tour turns it around a bit with the flat stick. If he remains solid with his ball striking, I expect a big second round jump from Hadwin.
Hadwin is also coming into this week with a ton of confidence. He lost in a playoff last week at the Rocket Mortgage to Rickie Fowler and finished T12 at the Canadian Open a few weeks back. He has gained at least 2.4 strokes on approach in four consecutive events, which is why I believe the strong iron play will continue in round two.
Keith Mitchell fired a (-3) 68 in round one. However, Mitchell hit it well enough to shoot three or four strokes better. He finished round one 12th in the field on approach, gaining 1.77 strokes on the field and gained 0.2 strokes off the tee. What killed him was the putting, where he lost 3.15 strokes to the field.
What is crazy about Mitchell's round is that the two things that held him back have actually been strengths lately. Keith Mitchell is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on tour and has lost strokes off the tee just ONCE since May of last year. I expect that off the tee game to improve in round two and him to gain more ground on the field than his baseline performance in round one. The putting also should not stay like this. Keith Mitchell isn't a bad putter, in fact over his last five starts he has gained on average 2.1 strokes against the field on the greens. I expect a nice turnaround from Mitchell in round two, who already beat the 68.5 strokes in round one.
J.T. Poston MORE Birdies or Better than Satoshi Kodaira
No disrespect to Kodaira but this is a situation where we have two players who are not in the same class. Since the start of 2023, Kodaira has just one finish inside the top 40 on the PGA Tour. In fact, he only has just three top-25 finishes total in the last two calendar years. Don't get me wrong, Poston hasn't had the greatest year, but his average year still includes three top-ten finishes and seven top-25s.
In addition, Poston is the defending champion here. He finished round one gaining just under a stroke off the tee, just over a stroke around the green and over two strokes putting. Hitting fairways and making putts is the recipe for success here. While I'd like Poston's iron game to be a little better in round two, if the putter stays hot I love him in this matchup.