Ezekiel Elliott Signs with Patriots: Fantasy Football Impact in 2023 NFL Free Agency

Breaking: Ex-Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott signs one-year contract with Patriots worth up to $6 million. Impact on players and teams discussed.

After what felt like an eternity, the dominoes have finally started to fall in the world of unsigned free-agent running backs. The first domino to topple is none other than Ezekiel Elliott, the former Cowboy. He has agreed to a one-year contract with the Patriots, which has the potential to be worth up to $6 million.

Let's delve into what this signing means for the players and teams involved.

Ezekiel Elliott has been a force to be reckoned with during his time with the Cowboys. He has consistently averaged 1,514 yards from scrimmage and 11.4 touchdowns per year over his seven seasons. In fact, he finished as a top-five fantasy scorer at the running back position in three out of his first four seasons in Dallas. Even in 2022, he finished as the RB19, still within the top 12 scorers at his position.

However, it's important to note that Elliott just turned 28 and has accumulated a significant amount of mileage over the years. With 2,274 carries and 316 receptions, including playoff games, his efficiency did decline last year. He averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and had only 17 catches for 92 yards. Despite this, Elliott managed to find the end zone 12 times.

It's clear that Elliott is no longer seen as a player who can single-handedly carry a backfield. Instead, he will complement Rhamondre Stevenson, the incumbent Patriots starter who amassed 1,461 scrimmage yards for the team in 2022. It's unlikely that Elliott will approach 1,000 yards from scrimmage unless Stevenson suffers an injury. Additionally, his limited receiving production from last year suggests that he won't be heavily involved in passing downs.

However, there is a possibility that Elliott could become the Patriots' primary goal-line back this season. Last year, he scored a touchdown on an impressive 56.3% of his carries inside the 5-yard line, the fourth-best rate in the league. In comparison, Stevenson only scored on 28.6% of his carries in the same situation.

Stevenson had the majority share of New England's 356 running back carries last season, accounting for 59%. It's likely that he will have a similar workload this season, with Elliott taking the majority of carries that were previously going to Damien Harris and other running backs on the Patriots roster. Unfortunately, this signing diminishes the fantasy value of Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris, and Ty Montgomery for the upcoming season.

On the flip side, the signing of Elliott could limit Stevenson's potential for touchdowns, thus lowering his ceiling and slightly impacting his overall fantasy value.

In light of the Elliott signing, I have adjusted my rankings in half-point PPR leagues. Stevenson has dropped from RB11 to RB12, and I had already bumped him down a few spots earlier in the summer when the Patriots were considering another free-agent running back, Dalvin Cook.

As for Elliott, he has moved up to RB47 in my rankings. While there is a chance he finishes higher than that, his potential ceiling is not what it once was. Therefore, I still rank him below several backup running backs who I believe offer greater upside.

The Patriots' acquisition of Elliott effectively shuts the door on any possibility of him returning to Dallas. This development seems promising for Tony Pollard, who currently has the Dallas backfield mostly to himself. However, there is a chance that the Cowboys could bring in another veteran to complement Pollard.

Now, we eagerly await the fall of the remaining unsigned free-agent running backs, including Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt.

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