What the Premier League table should look like based on actual performances - Chelsea 4th

The Premier League table does not accurately reflect team performances, according to Opta Analyst's Expected Points Model. Chelsea would be in 4th place instead of 14th, Luton Town would be higher, and Tottenham Hotspur would be as low as 9th.

The Premier League table can often be deceiving when it comes to reflecting a team's actual performances on the pitch. Chelsea, for example, currently find themselves in 14th place, but according to Opta Analyst's Expected Points Model, they would be in 4th place if their fortunes matched their performances. This provides some comfort to Chelsea fans, who can take solace in the fact that their team is creating chances, they just need to improve their finishing.

On the other hand, Luton Town, who were expected to struggle this season, have not been as bad as their position suggests. Despite currently sitting in 18th place, the Expected Points Model shows that they would be as high as 14th if they had converted the chances they've been creating. This suggests that Luton Town may have some potential and shouldn't be counted out just yet.

Tottenham Hotspur, under the management of Ange Postecoglou, have exceeded expectations so far this season. Many predicted that they would struggle after the departure of Harry Kane, but they have performed admirably and currently occupy a Champions League spot. However, based on their performances and expected goals, they would actually be as low as 9th in the table. Despite this, Postecoglou has done a tremendous job with the team and has the ability to keep them performing above expectations.

Fulham, who surprised everyone last season by comfortably finishing in mid-table, are currently in 11th place. However, the Expected Points Model reveals that they would actually be in the relegation zone if their underlying numbers matched their production on the pitch. This suggests that Fulham may be overperforming and could struggle as the season progresses.

Overall, the Expected Points Model provides a different perspective on the Premier League table. It shows that a team's position may not accurately reflect their performances and that there are often surprises and inconsistencies in football. While these models can provide some insight, ultimately, a team's ability to finish their chances and win games is what determines their success.

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