ESPN FPI: Significant Alterations to Michigan Football's Win Expectancy in Remaining Games

Michigan football has risen to the second spot in ESPN FPI rankings, with a high chance of winning the conference and making the playoffs.

As the 2023 season kicks off, the preseason ESPN FPI ranking left many Michigan football fans and media analysts scratching their heads. The initial ranking placed Michigan as the sixth-best team, trailing behind powerhouses like Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and LSU. However, the tides have turned dramatically since then.

Historically, Michigan has been considered the underdog in their road game against Penn State and their regular-season finale against the Buckeyes. But now, as Michigan showcases their strength and completeness, while other teams stumble with losses or weaknesses, what do the advanced analytics say after Week 8?

Let's take a look at the win expectancies for the remaining four games of the regular season, and delve into our thoughts on the matter.

Overall, Michigan football has experienced quite the rollercoaster in ESPN FPI rankings. Starting the season at a respectable No. 6, they plummeted to 14th. However, they have now climbed back up to the second spot, just behind Ohio State. The Wolverines currently hold a 21.6% chance of winning all their remaining games, a 34.4% chance of winning the division, a 31.6% chance of winning the conference, a 46.2% chance of making the playoff, a 26.4% chance of making the national championship game, and a 14.8% chance of winning it all.

It's worth noting that FPI has been skeptical of Michigan football until this week. The initial predictions had them losing to Penn State and Ohio State. However, recent developments, including a balanced matchup in Happy Valley, have shifted the win expectancy in Michigan's favor against the Buckeyes.

While Ohio State and Penn State have faced tougher opponents thus far, there is nothing to suggest that Michigan is lacking in any way. In fact, if anything, there seems to be untapped potential waiting to be unleashed by the Wolverines.

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