Plum school renovation projects, declining enrollment forecast

"Plum School District's Pivik Elementary might not undergo a $1.5 million renovation as a study predicts declining enrollment."

A recent study from Davis Demographics has projected a decrease in enrollment at Plum School District over the next decade, raising questions about the future of a proposed $1.5 million renovation project at Pivik Elementary.

The study, which is part of a larger estimated $68.5 million in renovations and new construction at K-4 schools, Pivik and O'Block elementary, and the middle school, as well as the possible return of full-day kindergarten, found that O'Block's growth is estimated at 5% over the next five years, while Pivik is expected to decline by about 16% during that time.

Enrollment in fifth and sixth grades is projected to increase by about 9% and 12% in the middle school overall in five years, while high school enrollment is expected to decrease by about 7%.

The report also found that Pivik's enrollment would drop from 730 students this school year to about 610 in 2028-29 and 604 in 2033-34, while O'Block Elementary enrollment is expected to increase from 503 this school year to about 553 in 2028-29 and up to 564 in 2033-34. Middle school enrollment is expected to go from 547 students this school year to about 614 in 2028-29 and down to 542 in 2033-34, and high school enrollment is expected to go from 1,250 students this school year to about 1,161 in 2028-29 and back up to 1,230 in 2033-34.

Overall, districtwide student enrollment is predicted to drop from 3,568 students this school year to 3,525 in 2028-29, before falling to 3,471 in 2033-34.

Superintendent Rick Walsh said, "When you look at our overall population, it's flat. When you start to desegregate the data and start to drill down, those slides in regards to what is happening in our O'Block attendance area and our Pivik attendance area are very informative to our board. Based on this data, I don't believe there needs to be any renovations at Pivik, which is significant to know. This is one more piece of the puzzle for us to consider."

The study examined student enrollment, residential development, and other factors such as people moving in and out of the district and attrition to upper grades. It found that there are nine residential development projects in the borough with nearly 300 total units that could add 254 K-12 students over the next eight years, with a majority of them living near O'Block Elementary.

The report also showed that 740 students currently live in the Pivik area, but only 730 go to that school, while the O'Block neighborhood has 490 students living in its attendance area but 503 children are enrolled there. O'Block Elementary houses the district's specialized classrooms for elementary students with diverse needs, meaning students with specialized needs in both the O'Block and Pivik neighborhoods attend O'Block.

The board has yet to decide how to proceed with the multimillion-dollar renovations, but financial advisers have presented the district with plans for additions and renovations to Plum Middle School that would cost about $38.8 million.

The district has not yet decided how much taxes might go up, and budget meetings in March, April, and May will be crucial in determining the future of the proposed projects.