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T.D. Thirteen Forms, Forecast to Become Hurricane Lee

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to become Hurricane Lee by this weekend, potentially posing a threat to the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast.

Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, positioned approximately 1,400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system is expected to intensify and develop into Hurricane Lee over the next few days. The forecast indicates that Lee will track in a west-northwest direction, encountering warm ocean waters and low wind shear. However, there may be some dry air in the Atlantic's main development region that could hinder its growth.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Lee will become a hurricane by Thursday and potentially reach Category 3 or 4 status by the weekend. While it is still uncertain whether Lee will pose a threat to the Caribbean, it is projected to reach the longitude of the Lesser Antilles as an intense hurricane. The most likely scenario is that Lee will pass north of the islands, bringing only gusty winds and showers. However, there is a possibility that Lee could take a more southern track, resulting in more significant impacts on the islands.

Residents of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, are advised to closely monitor the progress of this system and have their hurricane plans prepared in case it takes a more southern track. The strength and size of the Bermuda-Azores high will play a significant role in determining the future path of Lee. If this high-pressure system weakens and shifts eastward, Lee could recurve into the central Atlantic without posing a threat to the mainland United States. However, if the high-pressure system strengthens and expands westward, there is a possibility that Lee could pose a threat to parts of the U.S. East Coast next week.

While the majority of ensemble computer models suggest a recurve scenario, it is important to note that hurricane forecasts are subject to change. It is crucial to stay updated with the latest information from and other reliable sources. Even if Lee does recurve, it could still impact Bermuda and parts of Atlantic Canada. Additionally, Lee is expected to generate dangerous high surf, rip currents, and possible beach erosion along the Eastern Seaboard, as well as affecting The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands.

As with any hurricane, it is essential to remain vigilant and prepared. The 2023 hurricane season is in full swing, and it is crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

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