UFC 302 Bets: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier, Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

UFC 302 main event features Makhachev vs. Poirier. Public betting heavily on Poirier, but smart money is on Makhachev.

Get ready for an epic night of fights on Saturday, June 1, as UFC 302 takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card will be available for pay-per-view on ESPN+ starting at 10 p.m. ET. The highly anticipated main event at UFC 302 will feature pound-for-pound the best fighter in the UFC, Islam Makhachev, defending his Middleweight title against former BMF champion Dustin Poirier.

Now, before we dive into the predictions, let me preface this by saying I'm not a die-hard UFC fan. I'm only tuning into this event because I'll be watching my New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the New York Yankees playing the San Francisco Giants on Saturday. So, take my picks with a grain of salt or consider them as a fun pizza bet.

The odds for the fights are sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 1.

Makhachev is considered the top fighter in the sport, while Poirier has had mixed results in his last four fights, with a recent KO victory over Benoit Saint-Denis at UFC 299. The Diamond suffered a loss in a UFC lightweight title fight against Charles Oliveira at UFC 269. Despite Poirier's popularity among fans, the public seems to be favoring him heavily.

John Ewing from BetMGM notes that four out of the five most bet props for UFC 302 involve a Poirier method of victory. As of Friday morning, around 90% of the bets placed at BetMGM were in favor of Dustin. However, combat sports tend to have different betting patterns compared to team sports, where favorites are typically favored. In UFC, the sharp play often lies with betting on the heavy favorite.

Makhachev claimed the lightweight belt by submitting Oliveira with an arm-triangle choke at UFC 280. In contrast, Oliveira made Poirier tap out with a rear-naked choke. Out of Makhachev's 14 UFC wins, six have been by submission. Poirier, on the other hand, has tapped out in two of his last three losses. Notably, Makhachev trains with former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who defeated Poirier in a UFC lightweight title match at UFC 242.

Given Makhachev's overwhelming odds, I'm opting for a DraftKings "Quick SGP" bet on Makhachev winning by submission in under 4.5 rounds (-110). This bet hinges on the reigning champ forcing Poirier to submit before the 2:30-minute mark of the fifth round.

In another matchup, I'm willing to back Strickland (-245) to emerge victorious. Strickland lost the UFC Middleweight title to Dricus du Plessis in January after upsetting Israel Adesanya at UFC 293. Despite his loss to du Plessis, several media organizations had Strickland winning on the scorecards. Costa, on the other hand, has suffered three losses in his last four fights, including a TKO defeat to Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight title in 2020.

Costa has been less active in the Octagon compared to Strickland, who has fought 11 times since Costa's loss to Adesanya, boasting an 8-3 record during that period. Both fighters are classified as "strikers" by ESPN's "Fight Center", with Strickland being the more efficient striker.

Neither fighter has secured a win via submission in the UFC. Strickland holds a significant strike differential advantage of +1.58 per minute compared to Costa's -0.18 in significant strikes landed per minute. Additionally, Strickland enjoys a four-inch reach advantage with his arms and a two-inch edge with his legs.

Moving on to the main event title match, I must admit that I tend to root for American fighters unless I have a bet on the foreigner. In this case, the line movement has favored Holland, who opened as a 2-to-1 favorite and reached 3-to-1 odds on Friday morning at BetMGM.

Kevin Holland's heroic actions outside the Octagon, including thwarting a carjacking and stopping a shooting, add an intriguing layer to his persona. However, these deeds are unrelated to his performance at UFC 302. Analyzing the fight itself, both Holland and Brown are known for their striking abilities, but Holland holds a four-inch arm-reach advantage and a higher significant-strike-per-minute differential.

Considering the similarities in their fighting styles, Price and Morono are expected to engage in a tactical battle. Morono has seen seven of his last ten fights go to the judges, while Price has suffered consecutive losses by KO/TKO. Despite these setbacks, Price has shown resilience by lasting beyond the halfway mark of the third round in five of his recent bouts.

Lastly, in a fight influenced by personal connections, Brown holds a hometown advantage as a Jamaica High School alumnus, while I have ties to the area through my college experience. Both fighters are classified as "strikers", with Brown enjoying a significant reach advantage over Santos. Brown's previous victory over Muslim Salikhov, who defeated Santos, adds an intriguing dynamic to this matchup.

In conclusion, UFC 302 promises to deliver an action-packed night of fights with intriguing storylines and competitive matchups. As a casual observer with a keen interest in the sport, I'm excited to see how these battles unfold and which fighters will emerge victorious in the Octagon.