NFL Playoff Scenarios: Teams Resting Starters, Fighting for Seeding

The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL and haven't been to the post-season since 2010.

The New York Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL, not having been to the post-season since 2010. Week 18 in the NFL is a tricky one to navigate for fantasy football and betting. Some teams are playing for a higher playoff seed, a playoff berth, or a better draft pick. Meanwhile, others are resting their star players because their post-season status is already situated. Making things even more interesting in the final week of the regular season are the players with statistical incentives in their contracts who may be a bit more motivated this week thanks to the financial rewards associated with their performances.

Here's a handy cheat sheet to help you make the most informed decisions as you make your weekend wagers.

Let's break it down.

Four Teams Locked In At Current Seed

The Baltimore Ravens have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and have nothing to gain as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18. We should expect players to be rested or at least pulled early, including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are listed as a 3.5 point home underdog as the oddsmakers fully expect to see Baltimore's backups in action most of the game.

Like the Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers have their first-round bye and home-field throughout the postseason locked up. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan says he won't rest players but running back Christian McCaffrey is ruled out with a calf injury. Fans and bettors should be prepared for San Francisco and Los Angeles Rams starters to make an early exit.

The Kansas City Chiefs will likely rest their starters, as that's been Andy Reid's protocol in the past. The Chiefs are getting 3.5 points from the lowly Chargers.

The Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski already announced quarterback Joe Flacco will not play in Week 18 and with the lack of depth right now for Cleveland, we should assume other integral players on the roster will also rest. The Browns are 7.5 point underdogs.

Three Teams Locked Into The Playoffs, Seeds May Change

The Dallas Cowboys will lock up the NFC East title and the NFC's No.2 seed with a win on Sunday vs. the Washington Commanders. They will be highly motivated to win, the No. 2 seed will avoid a matchup with the 49ers until the NFC Championship game. Plus it gives Dallas a home-field advantage in the Wildcard and Divisional rounds. They are currently -13.5 point favorites over the Commanders.

The Philadelphia Eagles will be scoreboard-watching and if Dallas is out to a big lead against the Commanders, head coach Nick Sirianni has already hinted that he will protect his starters against the Giants. The Eagles could slip into the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys get upset by Washington and Philadelphia wins in New York.

The Miami Dolphins aren't just battling with the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 but they are also battling the Bills for the AFC East title. If they lose to the Bills, Miami will drop from the No. 2 seed to the No. 6 seed. More on that below.

Two Teams Locked Into The Playoffs, Seeds Likely Stay The Same

The Los Angeles Rams have locked up a playoff berth and are playing only for seeding.The most likely scenario is the Rams hold onto the 6th seed, which they do by beating the 49ers. But if they lose, the Packers win, and a few other situations play out, the Rams could move down one spot to the 7th seed.

The Detroit Lions are likely going to stay put as the No. 3 seed. They can move up to the No. 2 seed with a win over the Vikings and losses from both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has given early indication he plans to play his starters.

AFC Teams Fighting For Playoff Berth

The Buffalo Bills have everything at stake. With a win over the Dolphins, they lock up the division title and the No. 2 AFC seed. If they lose, they could easily also lose out on a playoff berth altogether, depending on other outcomes.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will clinch the AFC South division title with a win. If they lose or tie, they will become dependent on other teams' (Colts, Texans) outcomes. The Jaguars are favored by -5.5 over the Titans.

The Indianapolis Colts can secure a playoff berth with a win over Houston. They can also secure the AFC South title with a win and a Jacksonville loss or tie.

The Houston Texans are in a similar position as the Colts, though the Colts have a slightly easier path to the division title. With a win, Houston can secure a playoff berth. With a win and a Jacksonville loss and a Pittsburgh loss or tie, they can win their division.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will need some luck from other teams, but one thing they must do is win. They're the first game of the week and won't know the outcome of any of the other games, so expect them to play at full strength.

NFC Teams Fighting For Playoff Berth

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will clinch the NFC South with a victory over Carolina. With a loss they miss the playoffs altogether.

The Green Bay Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. the Bears. They can still make the playoffs with a complicated series of other results.

With a Green Bay loss and a Seattle win, the Seahawks will be playoff-bound. These teams have simultaneous start times so the expectation is each squad will use their starters for the entirety of the contest.

The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC south with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. A loss eliminates New Orleans from any postseason chances.

The Minnesota Vikings need a lot of luck from other matchups to make it to the postseason, but one thing they cannot afford is a loss. They play in the early slate vs. Detroit, so we should expect them to give it all they've got and then cross their fingers that the Cardinals, Bears, Falcons and/or Panthers win their games as well.

The Atlanta Falcons can clinch the NFC South title with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs all play in the early Sunday slate. With a loss, the Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs.

Teams Eliminated From Playoff Content

These teams are eliminated from playoff contention. We can assume many will be looking for better draft picks but also don't rule out the fun of playing spoiler for division rivals.

Cincinnati Bengals

New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots

Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers

New York Giants

Washington Commanders

Arizona Cardinals